From 1 January 2026, imports of certain carbon-intensive goods into the EU became subject to additional charges under the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). The covered product groups include iron and steel, aluminium, fertilisers, cement, electricity, and hydrogen. In the earlier transitional phase (1 October 2023 to 31 December 2025), importers had reporting-only obligations, but no charges applied. In the definitive phase starting in 2026, importers must purchase and surrender CBAM certificates linked to embedded CO₂ emissions, with financial obligations rolled out over a nine-year period. For EU CBAM UAE exporters, the immediate commercial issue is that EU buyers now face a real carbon bill and will price that risk into contracts, routes, and supplier selection.
Pricing signals are already visible. The European Commission published the first quarterly CBAM certificate price on 7 April 2026 at EUR 75.36 per tonne of CO₂ for Q1 2026 imports. Separate reporting also frames the linked EU carbon market range at around €70–€100 per tonne of CO₂. In planning terms, Fastmarkets notes that at an EUA price of €90 in 2026, importers of high-intensity steel could face extra costs of €40–€60 per tonne. These figures describe importer exposure, but the supply-chain effect is direct: exporters’ emissions data and carbon pricing evidence help determine the cost their EU buyer faces, which can translate into lower netback prices or lost volume if a shipment looks carbon-expensive.
Why Abu Dhabi Aluminium Is a Primary Exposure Channel
Early evidence focused on Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) economies finds aluminium is the main impact channel, with exposure varying across members. Bahrain and the UAE are identified as the most affected, both in absolute terms and relative to GDP, while Saudi Arabia and Oman have more limited exposure and Kuwait and Qatar are largely unaffected. Under current CBAM rules for aluminium, only direct emissions are considered. In that scope, the carbon intensities for primary aluminium made by GCC producers are described as similar to the EU and lower than key competitors China and India, creating some scope to offset demand decreases by increasing market share. However, that outlook is conditional: future outcomes depend on whether indirect emissions from electricity are covered, EU compensation reforms, anti-resource shuffling measures, and GCC decarbonisation initiatives.
For steel and fertiliser shipments, the compliance and data burden becomes a competitive differentiator. CBAM is described as “live” from January 2026, with EU buyers paying for the carbon in every shipment they receive. If exporters cannot provide verified carbon data, EU default values apply and are described as set high, raising the buyer’s cost and potentially shifting procurement to competitors. One GCC example cited is a German buyer requiring verified carbon data for a steel order; without it, a competitor with a verified Environmental Product Declaration (EPD) secured the contract. Operationally, CBAM compliance sits alongside customs but uses a separate registry system, and businesses importing covered goods into the EU through third-party importers of record should confirm authorised CBAM declarant status ahead of the May 2027 first annual declaration deadline.
At the system level, multiple estimates underscore why EU buyers may become more selective on Abu Dhabi-linked flows in 2026. Fastmarkets reports provisional CBAM benchmarks pointing to €12B+ of importer costs in 2026 across iron and steel, aluminium, fertiliser and cement, and adds that the metals industry is expected to be the largest purchaser of CBAM certificates, totalling 88% of liabilities between 2026 and 2035, with 81% of total CBAM costs contributed by the iron and steel sector. In a separate Fastmarkets outlook, aluminium importers are projected to collectively face liabilities near €500 million in 2026, while the inclusion of indirect emissions is described as a key uncertainty that could increase total CBAM costs for aluminium from €1 billion to €4.7 billion by 2030. For UAE exporters serving EU customers, the near-term playbook is clear in principle: quantify embedded emissions, verify the figures, and make the buyer’s cost predictable.
When did EU CBAM start charging for imports, not just reporting?
What was the first published CBAM certificate price in 2026?
Which product groups are covered that matter most for Abu Dhabi-linked exports?
How much extra cost can high-intensity steel face under CBAM-linked pricing assumptions?
How are EU CBAM and UAE exporters connected in practice if the EU buyer is liable?
